Epic Snow Means it’s Warming up! or Something
Al Gore's New Home?
So say the global warming believers, and some climate scientists. Of course weather isn’t climate, but weather over time is. Global warming scoffers (OK, I’m guilty) and other climate scientists point out that more snow now could indeed mean that it’s colder and getting colder, not warmer.
The New York Times has a story this morning that sort of scratches the surface of the discussion swirling around the record snow for the mid-Atlantic. Was more snow predicted by the climate models? Some are saying yes:
Jeff Masters, a meteorologist who writes on the Weather Underground blog, said that the recent snows do not, by themselves, demonstrate anything about the long-term trajectory of the planet. Climate is, by definition, a measure of decades and centuries, not months or years.
But Dr. Masters also said that government and academic studies had consistently predicted an increasing frequency of just these kinds of record-setting storms because warmer air carries more moisture.
They also point out that the Winter Olympics is fixin’ ta start with not much snow in Vancouver, BC.
Most climate scientists respond that the ferocious storms are consistent with forecasts that a heating planet will produce more frequent and more intense weather events.
But some independent climate experts say the blizzards in the Northeast no more prove that the planet is cooling than the lack of snow in Vancouver or the downpours in Southern California prove that it is warming.
However, at least one very prominent global warming advocating climate scientist is quoted as saying that snow would be a rare and exciting event in a few years. He said that 9 years ago!
One more point from today’s article (emphasis mine):
A federal government report issued last year, intended to be the authoritative statement of known climate trends in the United States, pointed to the likelihood of more frequent snowstorms in the Northeast and less frequent snow in the South and Southeast as a result of long-term temperature and precipitation patterns….
Um, its not only record snow this year in the mid-Atlantic, but it’s snowing again for the 3rd time this season in Dallas, Texas. True, one year doesn’t not a cooler planet make, but the planet has been coming off of it’s high’s for the last 7 to 9 years.
This January’s weather pattern in the Northern Hemisphere almost mirrored the ’70′s when many of the same scientists were warning of the coming ice age. AccuWeather also NAILED this Winter’s forecast (released in October) including heavy mountain snow in Arizona (we’ve been hammered), snow in the south (yep), heavy mid-Atlantic snow (you think?), AND even the lack of snow in Vancouver, B.C. for the Olympics.
Depending on who you believe, we are either headed for more warming after this brief cooling pause, or we are still warming and the record piles of snow support that, or it’s getting colder and that is the trend for the next 30 years or so. Since most civilizations do better when it’s warm, better hope it’s not the latter. If it is, we can expect more mocking from folks like me and Senator Inhofe.
As an illustration of their point of view, the family of Senator James M. Inhofe, Republican of Oklahoma, a leading climate skeptic in Congress, built a six-foot-tall igloo on Capitol Hill and put a cardboard sign on top that read “Al Gore’s New Home.”
The extreme weather, Mr. Inhofe said by e-mail, reinforced doubts about scientists’ conclusion that global warming was “unequivocal” and most likely caused by human activity.
Time to buy a big coat in case Al Gore is wrong. You can’t build bigger glaciers without more snow. Maybe more snowstorms is natures way of bringing us from the brink of devastatingly warm days at the beach and catastrophic meadows and lilies where glaciers once scrapped the ground clean of all life. Whew, that was a close one!
The Mini Ice Age Starts Here
Next stop, Ice Age?
An excellent analysis in the Mail Online. The article details the natural cycles of both the Atlantic and Pacific Multi-Decadal Oscillations. Something I’ve written a lot about on this site for over a year now. The article points to research being done that shows when the ocean currents are in warm phase, the Earth experiences warming. When they are in cold phase, well, you get the idea.
The bitter winter afflicting much of the Northern Hemisphere is only the start of a global trend towards cooler weather that is likely to last for 20 or 30 years, say some of the world’s most eminent climate scientists.
Their predictions – based on an analysis of natural cycles in water temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans – challenge some of the global warming orthodoxy’s most deeply cherished beliefs, such as the claim that the North Pole will be free of ice in summer by 2013.
According to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado, Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since 2007 – and even the most committed global warming activists do not dispute this.
Did you see that? Read it again.
According to the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado, Arctic summer sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since 2007 – and even the most committed global warming activists do not dispute this.
Funny. I don’t remember hearing that on my telly. Is it possible that the American Networks are holding out on us? Just wondering out loud, but I digress.
The conclusion of the scientists interviewed in the article? While the rise in CO2 levels may play a part in rising temperatures, it’s a very small part. Mostly the climate is driven by natural forces. They say the ocean currents could be as much as 50% responsible.
Prof Latif, who leads a research team at the renowned Leibniz Institute at Germany’s Kiel University, has developed new methods for measuring ocean temperatures 3,000ft beneath the surface, where the cooling and warming cycles start.
He and his colleagues predicted the new cooling trend in a paper published in 2008 and warned of it again at an IPCC conference in Geneva last September.
Last night he told The Mail on Sunday: ‘A significant share of the warming we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century was due to these cycles – perhaps as much as 50 per cent.
‘They have now gone into reverse, so winters like this one will become much more likely. Summers will also probably be cooler, and all this may well last two decades or longer.
The article doesn’t address the fact that the Sun is putting out a lot less energy. The Old Farmer’s Almanac had an article last year that speculated what the affects might be of both the Pacific and now the Atlantic in cold phases combined with a quiet Sun. They mentioned the possibility of a mini ice age. There is at least one prominent Russian scientist who believes that is possible as well. The article in the Mail reminisces about the mid-70s when many scientists were also thinking that way… and blaming man:
Prof Tsonis said that the period from 1915 to 1940 saw a strong warm mode, reflected in rising temperatures. But from 1940 until the late Seventies, the last MDO cold-mode era, the world cooled, despite the fact that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere continued to rise.
He recalled that towards the end of the last cold mode, the world’s media were preoccupied by fears of freezing.
For example, in 1974, a Time magazine cover story predicted ‘Another Ice Age’, saying: ‘Man may be somewhat responsible – as a result of farming and fuel burning [which is] blocking more and more sunlight from reaching and heating the Earth.’
Prof Tsonis said: ‘Perhaps we will see talk of an ice age again by the early 2030s, just as the MDOs shift once more and temperatures begin to rise.’
I know I harp on this, but it matters. Cap & Trade and global climate treaties to stop global warming are the wrong approach. They will cripple already ailing economies and do nothing but redistribute wealth and give power to bureaucrats at the U.N. It’s hard to know someone’s motives, but it does fit that perhaps that is the real aim. Not to “save the planet,” (such a lofty sounding goal) but rather to manufacture an issue and use it as a power grab. Thankfully all of this cold weather is giving a lot of people pause and may help thwart those evil plans. That is why I am all for global cooling!
Worst U.S. Winter in 25 Years?
AccuWeather.com Forecast
AccuWeather says it’s shaping up that way… or worse:
The last time a large swath of severely low temperatures struck the nation was in January 1985. That historic arctic outbreak had below-zero temperatures Fahrenheit stretching from Chicago eastward to New York City, and all the way south to Macon, Ga.
While Bastardi says the upcoming days will bring cold not seen since 1985 or 1982, he believes this winter is shaping up much that of like 1977-78. That winter, nearly all of the United States east of the Rockies had a cold October followed by a warm November, with the cold returning in December.
What is most interesting in this case is what followed, where the months from January through March can all be classified as very cold, relative to normal.
This was the forecast from the Farmer’s Almanac. Bitterly cold is what they said back in September, at least for the midsection of the country. Seems like their forecast has been pretty good so far, although it’s been a bit cooler than predicted for the mid-Atlantic states. How do they come up with their forecasts? The exact formula is a secret, but they say they use historic data (so does AccuWeather) and solar cycles as a big part of their formula. Hmmm.
Could the Sun really be behind all of this Global Cooling? It seems to be the best predictor of the climate. One global warming scientist said in 2000 that “snow will be very a rare and exciting event.” Meanwhile, the U.K. is having it’s worst winter in 25 years, maybe more. Some solar scientists have been willing to bet that as the Sun goes into a quieter cycle that the Earth will cool. So far it seems the latter is coming true.
Unfortunately for Europe, Asia and North America this global cooling has been severe and deadly with a few months of winter yet to go. Check out some of today’s headlines:
3 Deaths Due To Cold in Memphis...
PAPER: GAS SUPPLIES RUNNING OUT IN UK...
Elderly burn books for warmth?
Vermont sets 'all-time record for one snowstorm'...
Iowa temps 'a solid 30 degrees below normal'...
Seoul buried in heaviest snowfall in 70 years...
Historic ice build-up shuts down NJ nuclear power plant...
Midwest Sees Near-Record Lows, Snow By The Foot...
Miami shivers from coldest weather in decade...
Global Cooling Hitting the Northern Hemisphere
It's Cold!
As in the ENTIRE Northern Hemisphere. Well, nearly. Let’s start in England where they are bracing for “One of the Coldest Winter in 100 Years.” The Telegraph has the frigid details:
Britain is bracing itself for one of the coldest winters for a century with temperatures hitting minus 16 degrees Celsius, forecasters have warned.
They predicted no let up in the freezing snap until at least mid-January, with snow, ice and severe frosts dominating.
And the likelihood is that the second half of the month will be even colder.
Weather patterns were more like those in the late 1970s, experts said, while Met Office figures released on Monday are expected to show that the country is experiencing the coldest winter for up to 25 years.
And while Britain is in the deep freeze, parts of the southern U.S. are expecting a “Once in a Generation Cold Snap.” So reports WNCT.com:
While temperatures won’t be falling to record lows, the National Weather Service says the duration of the cold weather is unusual. Highs could struggle to get above freezing for the next week in areas from Raleigh west.
Forecasters say there are some indications the weather with highs in the 30s and lows in the teens could last up to two weeks. A cold snap like that was last seen in January 1977.
From the North American Continent we go to India, where the cold has been fatal. iol.ca.za has more:
New Delhi – At least 17 people died as towns and cities in India’s northern states were hit by cold weather, officials said on Friday.
“Sixteen people have died in Uttar Pradesh since early Wednesday due to cold [weather] conditions in the state. Most victims were homeless or pavement dwellers,” state police spokesman G N Khanna said.
Police in Jammu, the winter capital of India-administered Kashmir, found the body of a worker who also died due to the cold.
Temperatures have plummeted in Uttar Pradesh and main cities such as Kanpur and Agra recorded temperatures as low as 1 to 4 degrees Celsius.
Finally, a story this morning out of Chicago. The Midwest is beginning a frigid cold snap and a few deaths have been reported. CBS2Chicago.com has the story:
The other three cold-related deaths occurred in Chicago on Nov. 18, Dec. 9 and last Tuesday.
The current cold snap is expected to last at least the next couple days. Friday’s high expected to be 17 degrees and wind chills are expected to reach 15-to-25 degrees below zero Saturday and Sunday morning.
Now let’s go back to our first two stories and notice something very interesting.
Weather patterns were more like those in the late 1970s, experts said…
and
A cold snap like that was last seen in January 1977.
Hmmm. Wasn’t it the ’70′s when scientists were warning of a coming ice age? Seems to me like the scientists who say that because the Sun is entering a quiet phase the Earth is getting cooler are doing a better job of predicting the cooling trend than the scientists (and politicians) who insist that increased CO2 is causing run away warming.
Some Chinese Scientists Say Warmer is Better for China
Sunny Days Ahead?
This is a very interesting look by the L.A. Times at the thought by some scientists that warmer temperatures are better for China. A few things really stand out for me in this article. First, that in China scientists are reluctant to talk publicly about their opposition to the man-made global warming “theory.” The other is the revelation that when it was cold in China at the beginning of the 13th Century it caused the desert to grow!
Scientific studies show that the Mongol invasions under Genghis Khan at the beginning of the 13th century were hastened by a sharp drop in temperatures and the phenomenon known as desertification.
“With the cold temperatures there was a drought in Mongolia. Since people were eating livestock which fed on the grasslands, they needed to go south,” said Xie Zhenghui, of the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ International Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences. “When there was warmer weather and more rain, the Mongols didn’t need to attack the south.”
The same went for pre-Khan invaders. The Western Zhou dynasty came to an abrupt end in 771 BC, when the effects of cold weather drove barbarian tribes southward to sack the city of Xian, the capital whose glory is epitomized in the artistry of the terra-cotta warriors.
Higher temperatures, on the other hand, have marked periods of major progress.
Why are the world’s leaders meeting in the hopes of cooling off the planet? A colder world is not a happier one. History teaches us that civilizations thrive during warmer weather and die in the cold. That’s not good news when you consider that the Sun is entering a quiet phase and many scientists say the long term forecast is colder, not warmer, no matter what happens in Copenhagen.
Climate Change is Natural: 100 Reasons Why
Anchorage Shivers in the Snow
Read all about it in the Daily Express. Why is it that the UK papers do a better job of covering both sides of this debate than American papers? Or am I wrong on that?
Some of my favorite reasons listed in the article:
2) Man-made carbon dioxide emissions throughout human history constitute less than 0.00022 percent of the total naturally emitted from the mantle of the earth during geological history
4) After World War II, there was a huge surge in recorded CO2 emissions but global temperatures fell for four decades after 1940.
8) The IPCC theory is driven by just 60 scientists and favourable reviewers not the 4,000 usually cited
10) A large body of scientific research suggests that the sun is responsible for the greater share of climate change during the past hundred years.
17) The science of what determines the earth’s temperature is in fact far from settled or understood.
There are many many more, but you get the idea.
There seems to be way more than enough evidence against man-made global warming to stop trying to tax energy and redistribute the wealth of the United States and other developed countries. Cap & Trade and the Copenhagen Climate Treaty must die very public deaths. Let’s get back to the business of domestic production of fossil fuels and put Americans back to work. Maybe we can warm a cooling Earth just enough to hand the next generation a better planet than what we inherited. It IS cold out there! Calgary, Alberta just set a new record low for the date of -32.4 Celsius!
It’s Getting Cooler. Did the Global Warming Models Predict That?
It's Getting Cold
The science is not only not settled, the debate is moving decidedly against the scientists and politicians that believe in catastrophic global warming. The computer models that have been predicting such a calamity are just wrong and that is being demonstrated at every turn.
scienceandpublicpolicy.org publishes a monthly report and someone forwarded the July report to me. It is amazing and I highly recommend that you check it out. The report cites scientific reports and observations to conclude that not only is the Earth not warming, it has been cooling for nearly the last 8 years. CO2 not rising as fast as the U.N. says it should be and even though it is rising, global temperatures are falling. The global warming models say that the atmosphere near the equator should be warming above 10,000 feet. This has never been observed and we are still waiting. Apparently the cycles of the Sun have a lot to do with the temperature of the Earth. The Sun was going through a very active period during the 80s and especially 90s when temperatures were warming up. Now the Sun is much quieter and temperatures are falling. Maybe that’s why much of the Midwestern U.S. and the Northeast missed out on Summer this year? Sea level rises are also flat.
It’s all in the report. Observationally tested, scientifically approved.
Now go and sign the petition against the Energy Tax
New Study Says Global Warming (and cooling) is Natural
Who knew?! Oh, yeah. We did.
In case you are still on the fence, here is a bit more information to consider. Seems that years with El Nino are warmer. Years without are cooler. When there is volcanic activity on the planet it’s just cooler either way!
Here’s a link to an excellent blog analysis of the study. Here’s an excerpt:
“The surge in global temperatures since 1977 can be attributed to a 1976 climate shift in the Pacific Ocean that made warming El Niño conditions more likely than they were over the previous 30 years and cooling La Niña conditions less likely” says corresponding author de Freitas.
“We have shown that internal global climate-system variability accounts for at least 80% of the observed global climate variation over the past half-century. It may even be more if the period of influence of major volcanoes can be more clearly identified and the corresponding data excluded from the analysis.”
That condition in the Pacific that made El Nino more likely and La Nina less likely? The Pacific Decadal Oscilation flipped to a warm phase. At the same time, the Sun entered a more active period. No wonder it was almost as hot from the mid 80′s to 1998 as it was in the 30s and 40s. Almost.
Now that the Pacific Decadal Oscilation has flipped back to a cold phase (just 2 or 3 years ago) and the Sun is very quiet, expect colder years ahead. No wonder this may be the coldest Summer on record in parts of the Midwest this year. If a volcano or two decides to get active it may get even colder in the next few decades.
Year Without a Summer?
Parts of the U.S. may have just that if AccuWeather.com’s long range expert and meteorologist Joe Bastardi is correct. Here’s a part of an article that appeared on their website today (June 9, 2009):
According to Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi, areas from the northern Plains into the Northeast will have a “year without a summer.” The jet stream, which is suppressed abnormally south this spring, is also suppressing the number of thunderstorms that can form. The ones that do form in areas of the Ohio Valley and West are forming in places with very cold temperatures, which can lead to more electrified thunderstorms than normal this year.
Of course you know where I am going with this, and I think justifiably so. If you adhere to a man-caused global warming theory, shouldn’t the Earth be getting, I don’t know, warmer? If you think the Sun is the main driver of warming, and cooling, then it would make sense the the Earth is cooling now that the Sun is quieter.
Now I will admit. I am not a scientist. But these guys are! I learned enough science in school to know that if your observations do, or don’t, match your theory, then it’s time to change, or not change, your way of thinking. I believe global warming was real. When the Sun was burning hotter in the late 20th century. I also believe that global cooling is real. It’s what is happening now because the Sun is quieter. Greenhouse gases do a play a role in keeping the Earth’s temperature a bit more steady and consistent across the globe, but as far as man tipping the balance, I don’t see it. Man’s contribution to CO2 in the atmosphere is so small as to be negligible. Indeed, the evidence is bearing that out.
Game Over. NASA Evidence Says It’s the Sun.
I’ve been saying it for years and blogging it for years. The Old Farmers Almanac said it. Solar Scientists have been saying it. It just makes sense.
Seems that warming (and cooling) on our planet is caused by the Sun! No really:
The inconvertible fact, here is that even NASA’s own study acknowledges that solar variation has caused climate change in the past. And even the study’s members, mostly ardent supports of AGW theory, acknowledge that the sun may play a significant role in future climate changes.
Will this be enough to stop Cap & Trade?
